Mobile platform war does not exists

Android is just Google-defined brand. It is definition how you are allowed to use Java on top of Linux on a mobile devices. If somebody wants to use Java on top of Linux without the Android brand, it is easy. And many do that, especially in China.

Android has not won any competition to run billions of different devices in the future. Java and Linux have won that competition many years ago. I would say that race was won 10-15 years before Android brand was ”invented”. That was when Sun introduced Java and almost all of the software engineering schools and unversities adopted it as a programming language for teaching programming.

Practically every device currently available runs Java. There are cross-platform development environments for every viable platform in mobile, including iOS, Windows Phone, Android and other smaller mobile platforms. Nokia dumped Qt development environment, which can be used to develop apps for every platform. Soon every platform will be able to run Android apps using some kind of JVM. And there are cross platform Java IDEs already.

Operating systems, or mobile platforms are commodity today. There is no money in them any more. When we had PCs, Microsoft made a lot of money with Windows. Now that is not going to carry on. Mobile is not PC. Software has moved on. It is possible to get a chipset, some OS and other components, stick them together and start selling mobile devices. Innovation is in the user interaction.

Smartphone platform market share stats

Kantar Worldpanel has published mobile platform market share stats research regarding November 2012. There is also comparison data to November 2011. Those numbers can be played in many different ways. Here is a graph showing the market share change.

Hundred percent line means that a platform has not gained or lost any market share YoY. Fifty percent means a platform has lost half of its market share, and two hundred percent means a platform has doubled its market share.

This kind of graph can reveal some extra information in addition to looking only bare market share numbers.

Platform

• Symbian is in decline everywhere. Not a surprise.
• RIM is losing in many countries, but also gaining in Brazil.
• iOS is mainly going down, except in US and Brazil.
• Windows is gaining, except in Spain.
• Android is growing, except in the US.
• Bada has a huge spike in Brazil.

Country

• In the US, iOS is growing strongly after iPhone 5 release.
• Windows started practically from zero, but it is gaining everywhere. Spain is an exception, where the reason most probably is the lack of low-cost models. This means Windows is sold and pushed globally.
• Android is the king.
• In Brazil, Every platform has gained at the cost of Symbian. Even Bada has gained there significantly.

Other comments

It is no surprise Android is growing fast, because low-cost Android models have practically replaced feature phones in most countries.
Nokia is pushing Windows Phone globally, but it is a well-known fact that WP sales are seriously behind Symbian 1-2 years ago.
Apple should do something, or a decline will follow. US is an exceptional market with strong carrier handset subsidies, and success in the US can not be repeated in other countries.

The three big players

There are currently three big mobile handset makers, Apple, Samsung and Nokia. Here I am referring to mobile handsets as a whole, not only to smartphones. Apple and Samsung are profitable, Nokia is not. But, in my opinion, Apple has the biggest risk to fall right now. Bad signs are in the air, and the fall can be really fast.

Why apple would be the weakest? Because Apple can not design devices to manufacturing in a cost-efficient way. There are many references which say iPhone 5 is the most difficult device to assemble. And that is a really dangerous position when the price-competition heats up. Apple does not have cheaper device to sell. Here I do not count the old models, because they are old. Selling old for cheap does not hold if your brand image is hurt.

Samsung has achieved excellent sales with Samsung Galaxy S III. And I bet Samsung can make it devices cheaper than Apple.

The third competitor, Nokia, is a master of making devices cheap to manufacture. Most analysts simply ignore that Nokia still improves its market share in the lower end of the mobile handset price range. These devices also generate profit for Nokia. Nokia's increasing market share means Samsung is losing the low-end to Nokia. This penny-counting culture was probably a reason why Nokia lost its smartphone dominance. However, penny-counting is a permanent advantage when manufacturing physical devices for mass market. Design to manufacture is a reason why I still believe Nokia may still have an opportunity left.

Apple just fired the iOS and retail chiefs. The plain and simple reason may be that the Apple iPhone does not sell enought. It does not sell to the partners and it does not sell in Apple stores. Five million devices at start is not an evidence to guarantee success over the coming months.

Apple seems to be really in trouble this time

How many iPhones Apple will sell Q4/2012? That is a really $AAPL stock-shaking question. But if the early signs are to be believed, Apple may be in trouble, at least temporarily.

The first sign of troube is the mnagement shakeup. The fight for power seems to be on, and the rumored unwilligness to apologize MAppleGate was enough to fire Scott Forstall. The articles describing the incidents also tell the tory about the fight for a new design. Apparently Apple design has stayed where it was when the first iPhone was released. Major changes have happened only on hardware side of the desing and many bloggers are now calling iOS user interface "outdated".

Also, the first news regarding the iPad Mini sales are not as great as we have heard with earlier product releses. iPhone 5 was a success, but that was easy to predict. There was a lot of demand because original iPhone 4 contracts were expired. Many of these buyers were willing to upgrade. But for me Apple's product strategy seems a bit hazy right now. Two new tablets right now was a bit surprise, as the New iPad was lauched less than a year ago.

The new products are all supporting the new Lightning connector, which seems to be the driver behind the product releases. For early adopters, it is now possible to get rid of the old hardware ecosystem at once. It will cost you, but it is possible. For those who are not willing to move on, or who have invested to the old hardware ecosystem, there is still iPhone 4S and older iPads available.

But I was expecting more from Apple. They should have coordinate the reneval of iOS interface and hardware and release thos at the same time. If the advancement in desing is too slow, Apple magic will disappear. And that is the worst thing that can happen to Apple and the brand.

Google can not make money out of handsets

Google is doing well in the mobile and as a whole. But the hardware manufacturing arm, former independent Motorola, is still in trouble. No money can make Motorola profitable. It is not possible for Moto to escape from the reality, it is permanently lost. It will be interesting to see how long Google will keep its loss-making mobile maker in tow. From Google's point of view, it may be strategically wise to keep Motorola afloat, because without Moto Android would be all-in with Samsung and a bunch of small manufacturers.

For Google, the current situation must be frustating. Samsung makes money by selling Android phones. Google makes money by delivering advertisements to these Samsung made-phones. And  some of that money goes to loss-making Motorola. Apparently it woud be better for Google to shut down Motorola and keep the money flowing in from advertisements. But for some reason, Moto is still in the business.

Is smartphone a relevant platform?

A question came into my mind some time ago, when Nokia announced that they will use Windows Phone from now on. The question is how relevant a smartphone is as a platform any more.

Here I am expecting that Nokia knows what they are doing in general. The company has announced that their strategy is "The next billion" ie. they want to bring Internet into a billion pockets more. It means cheap mobile devices for the masses.

Browsing the internet does not require a smartphone. The relevant "platform" here is a web browser, in mony cases it is Opera Mini preloaded in Nokia handsets. Nokia is also improving the natiive browser in their Series 40 phones all the time.

Other killer "apps" in mobile, SMS, MMS, voice, messaging, music player, camera, location etc. do not require a smartphone. And in any case the definition of a smartphone is volatile. The original iPhone was not a smartphone, and it became a success because of the simplicity. Featurephones are usually simpler than "real" smartphones. Simplicity makes a mobile desirable in some cases.

My conclusion is that Nokia is fighting the mobile handsets and services war, and smartphones are only a piece in this bigger game. I am expecting, in addition to some cheap devices, that Nokia will improve Series 40 offerings. Probably we will see capacitive Series 40 full touch and touch & type devices this year.

A droid

There is still a out of talk about Motorola and how it survived by adopting Android. Instead of surviving it rather is a strategy that killed it.

Motorola was an early adopter and it started pushing out Android powered handsets earlier than its competitors. That was because there was no choice. Others had pushed Moto out of the race. Android gives a temporary relief, but now Samsung has enters the smartphone race in full steam. It means the early adopter advantage Moto once had is no more. The competition is once again about cost and product quality. And that its the race Moto once lost.

Yes, I am still horrified and interested to see what kind of quarter Moto has next. Is this the ugly one or will Moto be in the business for 3 months more. And who will buy the handset unit when its gone?